WS #8702

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Middle East conflict, with Israel expanding its incursion into Lebanon and capturing Beaufort Castle, despite a fragile ceasefire. This has driven oil prices up 2-2.8% (Brent to $93.35, WTI to $89.78) and dimmed hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire extension. The Colombian election dispute adds political uncertainty, with President Petro rejecting initial results. Separately, Japan's Nikkei hit a record above 67,000, and South Korea's exports remained strong, supporting semiconductor demand. Berkshire Hathaway's first major deal under Greg Abel was reported, but details are limited. The Fed's Powell reiterated warnings on Fed independence, but this is not new. Overall, the Middle East escalation is the key market-moving development, with oil prices likely to remain elevated and risk assets under pressure.