WS #8729

The dominant narrative is a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Iran suspending negotiations and threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by multiple sources including CNBC, Al Jazeera, and Bloomberg. This has driven oil prices up over 5% (WTI above $93, Brent above $96) and caused US bonds to drop on inflation fears. The situation is ESCALATING relative to the previous window, which noted a stable but tense standoff. Key new developments: Iran's negotiating team has stopped exchanging messages with the US, and Israel has issued evacuation orders for Beirut's Dahieh district, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 vs 53.3 expected, a positive data point that is being overshadowed by geopolitical risk. On the MAG7 front, NVDA saw bullish options activity (large call sweep) and Dell's blowout earnings (EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est) continue to support the AI narrative, partially offsetting macro fears. A counter-signal: the strong ISM data and AI-driven tech resilience are providing some support to equities, with Wall Street opening near record highs.