WS #8737

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with several new developments indicating escalation. Iran has reportedly quit all peace talks effective immediately, and its state-run media has warned of completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz "100%". This is corroborated by multiple sources: a BBC analysis notes Iran is not backing down, and an IDF source claims Beirut strikes were coordinated with Washington. The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to choke oil supply, with Morgan Stanley projecting a 75% recovery over four months if it reopens. In a counter-signal, OPEC+ is considering increasing oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in July, which could partially offset supply fears. Separately, Barry Diller's People Inc. has made a move to take MGM Resorts private at $48.30/share, sending MGM stock up 15%. SpaceX has filed an amended S-1, moving closer to an IPO. Tesla stock is sliding 3.21% to $421.78 amid robotics rivalry and capital allocation fears, despite surging Scandinavian demand. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on the Iran front, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and breakdown of talks intensifying oil supply risks.