WS #8811

The dominant signal from the previous window—geopolitical escalation in the Middle East—is now being joined by a sharp deterioration in crypto markets and hawkish Fed commentary. Bitcoin has plunged below $70,000, with Strategy (MSTR) selling 32 BTC for the first time since 2022, and CoinDesk reports the February $60,000 low is back in play. Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down, signaling potential rate hikes. This hawkish Fed stance counters the prevailing risk-on narrative. Separately, Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine, killing at least 18, which could further pressure energy markets. On the positive side, HPE's AI-driven earnings surge and Signet's raised guidance provide pockets of strength. The macro narrative is shifting toward stagflation fears: oil supply disruption risk + hawkish Fed + crypto selloff. The Iran missile attack on Kuwait from the previous window is not corroborated in this batch, so it is not carried forward. The Fed hawkishness and crypto crash are the most actionable new developments.