WS #8823

The dominant signal in this window is the JOLTS data surprise: US job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, well above the 6.866 million forecast, the highest in nearly two years. This pushes back Fed rate cut expectations, with Cleveland Fed President Hammack noting it may soon be appropriate to act on inflation risks. The strong labor market data is a counter-signal to the prevailing macro narrative of economic softening, and is likely to support the dollar and pressure rate-sensitive sectors. Separately, the US-Iran situation remains elevated: Rubio stated Iran will not get sanctions relief just for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran must commit to specific negotiations on enriched uranium. Vitol's top executive warned Western governments are not reckoning with the oil supply crunch from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while the IEA warned oil markets could enter a 'red zone' in July-August. Oil at $97/barrel is a key input. On the MAG7 front, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, MRVL, AVGO, and HPE are at 52-week highs, contradicting any broad tech weakness narrative. MSTR shares slid 8.53% to a one-month low after making its first Bitcoin sale in nearly four years (32 BTC) to fund dividend payments. Anthropic IPO chatter (draft S-1 cited) could reset AI valuation comps, with claims of $965B-$1.8T valuation. SpaceX IPO amendment shows 233% increase in war chest. Canada called for renewal of USMCA for another 16 years. The US proposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian products. Russia launched a major attack on Ukraine (73 missiles, 656 drones), killing at least 21. The narrative arc is mixed: JOLTS is a bullish macro surprise (hawkish for rates), while geopolitical risks (Iran, Ukraine) remain elevated. The MAG7 rally at 52-week highs is a bullish tech signal that contradicts any macro-driven selloff thesis.