WS #8891
The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant macro theme, with multiple signals indicating both escalation and potential de-escalation. Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg oil infrastructure have intensified energy supply concerns, while Hezbollah has reportedly accepted a US proposal for mutual cessation of attacks with Israel, offering a potential counter-signal to Middle East tensions. On the trade front, the EU is pushing back against US tariffs on forced labour grounds, and Trump's tariff threats continue to pressure global trade. In tech, Broadcom's earnings are upcoming, and Nvidia's CEO is pitching AI returns to billionaire families, supporting the AI narrative. Bitcoin has plunged below $67,000 amid ETF outflows and Strategy (MSTR) uncertainty, while Tesla's China EV sales surged in May. The macro backdrop includes Treasuries eyeing their biggest drop in two weeks on Fed rate-hike bets, and Japan approving $19.4 billion in household relief due to Middle East oil disruption.
Key developments
- Ukrainian drones strike St. Petersburg oil terminal, hitting nearly 40% of Russia's refining capacity
- Hezbollah accepts US proposal for mutual cessation of attacks with Israel
- Bitcoin plunges below $67,000 amid ETF outflows and Strategy uncertainty
- Trump says Iran peace deal talks 'will work out well' but Hormuz disruption seen through year-end
- EU pushes back against US tariffs on forced labour grounds, Trump threatens 12.5% tariff on Australia
- Nvidia CEO pitches 'insane' AI returns to billionaire families; Intel CEO reports surging CPU demand from agentic AI
- Treasuries eye biggest drop in two weeks on Fed rate-hike bets
- Japan approves $19.4 billion in household relief due to Middle East oil disruption