WS #8904

The Iran-US conflict continues to escalate with new military actions: the US shot down Iranian drones and missiles targeting ships in the Persian Gulf and struck Iranian territory in self-defense. Kuwait International Airport was severely damaged by a UAV attack. Netanyahu stated that Israel and US forces are ready if needed in Iran, that opening the Strait of Hormuz is possible militarily, and that he will leave escalation decisions to Trump. The OECD slashed global growth forecasts due to the Iran war, warning a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could drag growth to 1.8%. Oil prices remain elevated with WTI near $95 and Brent near $97, supported by a larger-than-expected 8M barrel crude inventory draw per EIA. South Korea locked in Canadian crude and LNG supply deals, partially offsetting supply concerns. On the Ukraine front, Ukrainian drones hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal ahead of Putin's economic forum, and a Russian attack killed three in Kramatorsk. In tech, Alphabet upsized its capital raise to $85B for AI spending, and Goldman said the AI spending boom may have further to run. Private credit stocks fell after Cliffwater redemption requests. The House is set to vote on Trump's power to continue the war in Iran. Polymarket odds of WTI hitting $100 this week fell to 34% as OPEC+ boosts output. The OECD warning on global growth is a key counter-signal to the bullish oil narrative, suggesting demand destruction may cap oil upside.