WS #8907

The dominant theme remains the escalating Iran-US conflict, with multiple cross-corroborated signals indicating ongoing military strikes and diplomatic tensions. A key new development: Trump stated that a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz until September would be acceptable, which is a significant escalation that could keep oil prices elevated. Additionally, Israel anticipates Trump authorization for a Beirut mission, and Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon. On the oil supply side, US crude inventories fell 7.97M barrels (double the prior week's decline and well ahead of estimates), while Putin approved TotalEnergies' sale of its 10% stake in Arctic LNG 2 to a Novatek subsidiary, which could partially offset supply fears. The Ukraine-Russia conflict escalated further with Ukrainian drones striking a major St. Petersburg oil terminal ahead of Putin's economic forum, adding to energy security fears. In tech, Alphabet upsized its equity raise to $84.75 billion for AI spending, while Musk's xAI paused hiring for specialists to train Grok, a potential sign of slowing AI investment. SpaceX IPO details were confirmed with a fixed $135 roadshow price at $1.75T valuation, a high-significance event. Private credit fears resurfaced as Cliffwater's flagship fund reported larger redemption requests, causing alternative asset manager stocks to tumble. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for Iran conflict and Ukraine-Russia, with oil and defense stocks likely to benefit while consumer and airline stocks face headwinds.