WS #9043

The dominant signal in this window is the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision, which held the repo rate at 5.25% as expected, but the accompanying inflation and GDP forecasts were notably revised. The RBI raised its FY27 CPI inflation view to 5.1% (from 4.6% previously) and cut its FY27 real GDP growth view to 6.6% (from 6.9%), reflecting stagflationary pressure from the Iran-driven energy crisis. This is corroborated by CNBC and Nikkei Asia, which highlight the rupee's historic lows and the central bank's difficult trade-off between supporting growth and containing inflation. The RBI's 'neutral' stance and unanimous vote suggest no near-term pivot, but the upward inflation revision signals potential rate hikes ahead, which would be negative for Indian equities and the rupee. Separately, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made multiple bullish statements on AI and robotics during a Korea visit, including plans to hire for an R&D center and meet with Hyundai, Samsung, and SK. This is a positive signal for NVDA and the broader AI/semiconductor sector, countering any bearish macro narrative. The House passed a $2 billion Ukraine aid bill, a modest positive for defense stocks but unlikely to move markets significantly. Crypto markets saw a broad selloff, with BTC at $63,035 (-2.18%), ETH at $1,731 (-4.33%), and ZEC plunging 34.72%, indicating risk-off sentiment in digital assets. The Iran-Strait of Hormuz crisis narrative remains ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window, but the RBI's inflation revision is a new data point that reinforces the stagflationary impact of the crisis on emerging markets.