WS #9073

The dominant signal in this window is the continued risk-off selloff driven by a blowout US jobs report that has cemented Fed rate hike expectations, crushing growth stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, down nearly 20% this week, as its largest buyer (Strategy) turned seller and ETF outflows accelerated. The Nasdaq is down over 2% on Friday, with NVDA and other AI-related names extending their selloff after Broadcom's unimpressive guidance triggered broad valuation concerns. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated: the US, Mexico, and Canada will miss the July USMCA deadline, ramping up trade tensions; Iran attacked US destroyers in the Persian Gulf and droned the Mina Al Fahal oil terminal, though it has resumed operations; and OPEC crude output fell to its lowest level in decades due to the US blockade of Iran. On the counter-signal side, Energy Secretary Wright announced the US will add 40 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve once the Iran conflict concludes, which could dampen some oil price upside. Additionally, a Bloomberg analyst stated 'there is no AI bubble,' providing some support to the tech narrative. The SpaceX IPO is generating significant attention, with the XOVR ETF implementing a shareholder protection plan ahead of the event, and Polymarket contracts heavily traded on the IPO market cap. The NVDA CEO has been summoned over China chip sales, adding regulatory risk to the AI trade. Overall, the narrative is one of risk-off sentiment with rate hike fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and crypto contagion, partially offset by long-term AI investment flows and potential SPR refill.