WS #9121
The dominant signal in this window is a massive tech selloff driven by a stronger-than-expected US jobs report (172,000 jobs added in May), which has pushed Treasury yields above 4.5% and crushed hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts. The Nasdaq plunged 4.2% on Friday, its worst day since October, with chip stocks losing over $1 trillion in market value. Broadcom's weak AI-related outlook triggered a sector-wide rout: NVDA -6.2%, AMD -10.9%, MU -13.3%, INTC -11%, AVGO -7.9%. The selloff extended to MAG7 names: META -5.5% (on reports of a potential stock offering for AI spending), AMZN -3.1%, MSFT -2.7%, AAPL -1.3%. This is a clear macro-driven rotation out of growth/tech into defensives, with the strong jobs data neutralizing the case for rate cuts and raising the specter of a rate hike. The tech selloff is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Fortune, AP, multiple local news outlets) and represents a significant escalation from the prior stable narrative. Simultaneously, the US-Iran conflict escalated again: the US military shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian coastal radar sites in response. This was reported by AP, Al Jazeera, CBC, and Newsweek, confirming cross-source corroboration. The attack raises the risk to the shaky ceasefire and keeps oil prices elevated, though Trump claimed the situation is 'going quite well.' The Iran war is also impacting global food security via fertilizer supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, per UN FAO warnings. India's Q4 GDP growth surprised at 7.8%, showing resilience despite the war, but risks remain. The rupee strengthened after RBI measures to attract inflows. Bitcoin fell 16% on the week to ~$61,600, pressured by ETF outflows and risk aversion. Key developments: (1) Tech/rate-hike selloff — high significance, multiple sources, specific tickers; (2) US-Iran escalation — high significance, cross-corroborated; (3) India GDP beat — medium significance, counters bearish India thesis; (4) Bitcoin crash — medium significance, reflects risk-off; (5) Insider selling at DELL and DDOG — low significance but notable for those tickers. The prevailing narrative is ESCALATING for tech selloff and STABLE for Iran conflict (no new ceasefire breakthrough).
Key developments
- US Jobs Report Beats Expectations, Sparking Tech Selloff on Rate Hike Fears
- US Shoots Down Iranian Drones, Strikes Radar Sites Near Strait of Hormuz
- India Q4 GDP Grows 7.8%, Beating Expectations Despite Iran War
- Bitcoin Plunges 16% on Week, ETF Outflows Hit Record
- Insider Selling at Dell and Datadog