WS #9242

The Iran-Israel conflict has escalated dramatically in the last 30 minutes, with Iran firing multiple waves of ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire. This is corroborated by multiple sources including NPR, CNBC, Al Jazeera, and various social media accounts. Iraq has closed its airspace for 72 hours, and western Iran's airspace is also closed. The US military is on high alert, and President Trump has publicly urged de-escalation, stating he will call Netanyahu to tell him not to strike back. Trump also indicated a deal was close but delayed. The situation is escalating rapidly, with potential for a wider regional conflict. Key market implications: oil prices likely to spike (energy bullish, airlines bearish), safe-haven assets (gold, USD) to rally, and equity markets to decline on risk-off sentiment. Goldman Sachs dropped its 2026 Fed rate cut call after strong jobs data, adding to macro uncertainty. Counter-signals: Trump's direct intervention to prevent Israeli retaliation could dampen the escalation risk, potentially capping oil price gains and limiting equity downside. However, Iran's threat to target US bases if Israel attacks introduces a new escalation risk that offsets this. The situation remains highly fluid with a bearish tilt for risk assets.