WS #9244

The Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate, with Iran firing ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire, corroborated by multiple sources including Al Jazeera, Axios, and social media. Iraq has closed its airspace until Wednesday, and Syria has temporarily closed southern airspace. The IDF warns Iran of a 'grave mistake' and reviews military plans. However, a strong de-escalation signal emerges: Trump tells Axios he will ask Netanyahu not to strike back, stating he is 'very close to a final deal with Iran' and that Iranian strikes 'didn't hurt anybody.' Iran's foreign minister held calls with Turkey and Pakistan, and the IRGC released footage of missile launches. The narrative is ESCALATING but with a significant de-escalation attempt from Trump, which could cap oil price spikes and limit equity downside. Separately, OPEC+ production increase plan sees Kuwait's quota rising to 2.644 million bpd in July, a minor supply-side signal. IATA warns of sharp profit decline for airlines due to higher fuel costs, putting Delta, United, Southwest in focus. The dominant theme remains geopolitical risk with a bearish tilt for risk assets, but the Trump intervention provides a partial offset.