WS #9254

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with multiple sources reporting Iranian missile strikes on Israel and a breakdown of the ceasefire. This is corroborated by Bloomberg, BBC, Al Jazeera, and multiple social media accounts, including a report of flights suspended at Tehran airport. Oil prices have surged: US crude futures rose $2.57 to $93.11/bbl and Brent rose $2.67 to $95.76/bbl, with a separate report of oil prices rising 3%. US stock futures are falling: S&P 500 futures down ~0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures down ~0.7%, and Dow futures down 150 points, extending Friday's tech selloff. President Trump has made contradictory statements: he says the US and Iran are 'close to a deal' while also stating he 'calls the shots' and Netanyahu will have 'no choice' but to accept a deal, and threatened a commando raid if talks fail. This creates uncertainty. The conflict escalation is the primary driver, with oil surging and equities falling. The previous narrative of a stable ceasefire is now de-escalating into active conflict. The Treasury is reportedly weighing using Iranian assets to help Gulf allies rebuild, which could be a counter-signal to the oil supply disruption thesis but is not yet confirmed.