WS #9268

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Multiple sources (NBC, AP, WSJ, Bloomberg, and OSINT accounts) corroborate that Israel has launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian military targets in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj, hitting air defense systems, ballistic missile facilities, and a drone production warehouse. This follows Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel earlier in the day. The strikes have already pushed oil above $92, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 7%. A ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia (Al-Kharj) adds a risk of wider regional involvement. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, with Iran slashing passage fees amid tensions. OPEC+ agreed to a symbolic 188,000 bpd quota increase for July, but this is largely irrelevant given the Strait closure. The Philippine earthquake (M7.8) is a secondary signal with limited US market impact. The DeepSeek $7.4B fundraise and Nvidia's LG partnership are notable but secondary to the geopolitical crisis. The narrative is clearly ESCALATING.