WS #9300

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-Israel conflict, which has escalated with a direct exchange of fire breaking a two-month ceasefire. Israel conducted strikes against Iran to prevent nuclear development, and Iran retaliated with missiles. However, both sides have halted attacks after US President Trump intervened, calling for an immediate ceasefire. Iran's military said it would stop strikes, and Israel also halted attacks at Trump's request, though Israel vows to continue its campaign in Lebanon. This de-escalation is a key counter-signal to the prevailing bearish war thesis, but the situation remains fragile. Fitch expects Brent crude to hold $100-110/bbl through July due to Strait of Hormuz disruption, then plunge to ~$70/bbl by September. US airline fuel costs surged 78% in April amid Mideast tensions, and Air New Zealand will cut flights due to rising fuel costs. Citadel Securities warns the Fed may need to raise rates soon to curb inflation. The New York Fed survey shows household financial worries hit a nearly four-year high. On the positive side, the Nasdaq-100 popped over 2% as Marvell's +13% surge led a tech rebound, and JPMorgan traders cut their near-term view on stocks after the rout. In corporate news, JNJ is acquiring Firefly Bio for $1 billion to expand its cancer pipeline, and Tango Therapeutics jumped 48% on positive pancreatic cancer data. Sam Bankman-Fried has applied for a pardon from Trump. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows, with $1.7B in outflows over four weeks.