WS #9303

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, with multiple cross-corroborated signals indicating continued escalation. Houthi missile launches from Yemen toward central Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with Israeli evacuation warnings for southern Lebanon, underscore the broadening regional scope. Fitch raised its 2026 oil and gas outlook, assuming a five-month Strait of Hormuz closure, with Brent expected at $100-110/bbl through July before easing to ~$70/bbl by September. This reinforces the bullish energy thesis and bearish implications for airlines and consumer sectors. The 7.8-magnitude earthquake in the Philippines, killing at least 19, adds a regional supply chain risk. In corporate news, Strategy (MSTR) purchased 1,550 Bitcoin for ~$101M, and Amazon is seeking to raise C$7B in Canadian dollar bonds to fund AI spending. JPMorgan traders cut their near-term view on stocks after the recent rout. The Iran-Israel conflict is clearly ESCALATING, with direct implications for oil prices, airlines, and defense stocks.