WS #9307

The dominant theme is the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, with multiple sources reporting an Iranian drone strike on an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the US disabling an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. This is corroborated by Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, and social media posts. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is expected to persist into 2027, with prediction markets pricing a 66% chance of no normal flow before January 2027. This supports oil prices and energy stocks while pressuring airlines and shipping. However, a counter-signal emerged: Iran lifted flight restrictions and reopened its airspace, and Israel reopened the Kerem Shalom and Rafah crossings for humanitarian aid, suggesting a potential de-escalation. Separately, Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote is underway, with expectations for AI Siri and iOS 27 updates, which could drive AAPL. The chip sector is rebounding after Friday's selloff, with Intel leading gains on reports that Nvidia and Google are considering it as a backup chipmaker. JPMorgan traders have turned tactically cautious on stocks, citing bond market volatility and tech selling. The SpaceX IPO is set for Friday, with Morningstar valuing it at half the IPO price, creating potential volatility. The US economy is defying the Middle East war with reacceleration, per TS Lombard.