WS #9320

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple corroborating developments: the US military disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, the US denied intercepting Iranian missiles but confirmed CENTCOM coordination with Israel, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 349.2M barrels—its lowest since 1983—as the blockade of Iranian oil tightens. This is driving oil prices higher (Brent +1.04%, WTI +0.55%) and crushing airline profits, with IATA slashing its 2026 net profit forecast to $23B from $41B as US jet fuel costs nearly double. The IAEA and Western nations are calling on Iran to restart nuclear cooperation, while Trump warned Netanyahu that Israel risks being 'left alone' if it acts without US coordination. Separately, the Pentagon added Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and Nio to the 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies, increasing the risk of US restrictions on these firms. Apple's WWDC announcements—including Siri AI, AI-powered Shortcuts, and Image Playground improvements—are being met with a muted market response, with AAPL down ~1% as investors focus on the lack of a proprietary frontier model. SpaceX will close its IPO book Wednesday, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee dismissing concerns that the IPO will mark a market top, citing $7T in sidelined cash. The H-1B visa fee ruling (blocked by federal judge) is a positive for tech hiring but is not new. The dominant narrative is the Iran conflict ESCALATING, with oil supply disruption and airline profit warnings as key second-order effects.