WS #9355

The dominant signal in this window is the US Department of Defense's addition of major Chinese firms including Alibaba, BYD, and Baidu to its 'Chinese military companies' list, reported by BBC, Al Jazeera, and SCMP. This is a significant escalation in US-China tensions, directly impacting these companies' US operations and investor sentiment. Alibaba and WuXi AppTec declined in Hong Kong, while Nio and Baidu shrugged off the move. The list now includes 188 firms, up from 134 in 2025. Separately, China's May trade data beat expectations significantly: exports rose 19.4% y/y (vs 15% poll), imports rose 27.4% (vs 25% poll), and the trade surplus came in at $105.43 billion (vs $92.1 billion poll). This strong data counters the narrative of a faltering Chinese economy and reduces urgency for stimulus. The trade surplus with the US was $26.02 billion in May. Additionally, an energy economist warned oil could hit $150/barrel if the Iran war continues, with Brent at $94. The fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire remains a key risk. Trump was booed at the Knicks game, but this is noise with no market impact. The OpenAI IPO filing and Databricks fundraising are notable but not yet actionable. The China rare earth supply request from the Trump admin to Japan is a minor positive for rare earth stocks.