WS #9385

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, but this window shows a clear de-escalation signal. The US Energy Secretary reported that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising significantly, and Iran has submitted a draft ceasefire proposal to the US with terms reportedly acceptable. This corroborates the earlier ceasefire narrative and is the most significant market-moving development. Consequently, oil fell below $90, and stocks and bonds rallied on hopes of a deal. Gold slid past $4,278/oz, down more than 1%. The US embassy in Jerusalem also ended its shelter-in-place order for government employees, further signaling reduced tensions. However, this de-escalation is countered by an Israeli strike on southern Lebanon that killed at least eight people, threatening the uneasy pause. On the tech side, Broadcom reported strong Q2 results with revenue up 48% YoY, and Apple scrapped the launch of its AI-powered Siri in the EU due to regulatory clashes. The macro narrative is shifting from crisis escalation to potential resolution, with oil prices and risk assets reacting accordingly.