WS #9387

The dominant narrative in this window is a clear de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with the US Embassy in Jerusalem lifting its shelter-in-place order and oil futures sliding nearly 4% as Hormuz tanker traffic shows signs of recovery. This corroborates the earlier ceasefire narrative and is the most significant market-moving development. However, this de-escalation is countered by an Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon and a US fighter jet strike on an oil tanker heading to Iran, threatening the uneasy pause. On the regulatory front, the EU has ordered Meta to allow rival AI chatbots free access to WhatsApp, a high-significance development for META and the broader AI landscape. On the corporate side, Broadcom reported strong Q2 results with revenue up 48% YoY, and GSK agreed to buy Nuvalent for $10.6 billion. US economic data showed existing home sales accelerating to 4.17M (beat) and wholesale sales rising 2% (beat), providing a positive macro backdrop. The macro narrative is shifting from crisis escalation to potential resolution, with oil prices and risk assets reacting accordingly, but the carry-forward of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and the new EU order on Meta are the key signals.