WS #9414

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran military tensions. Multiple sources (Bluesky, BBC, NYT) report that Trump has stated the US 'must respond' after Iran shot down an AH-64 Apache helicopter, and US officials have notified Israel of a planned major attack on Iran in the coming hours. This is corroborated by a Bluesky post citing US officials saying Washington has notified Israel it will conduct a major attack on Iran in the coming hours. The Strait of Hormuz traffic is reported down 95% after clashes, and an Iranian drone struck an Erbil oil refinery. However, Iran's deputy foreign minister denied responsibility for the Apache downing, and VP Vance suggested negotiations could yield a deal within a week to months, providing a partial counter-signal. Separately, a major tech selloff continues with large dark pool trades in SPY ($4.06B), IVV ($4.06B and $740M), and META ($749M), indicating institutional selling. Cracker Barrel surged after strong FQ3 results, and FuelCell Energy surged on a Canaccord upgrade. On the macro front, the Fed will release bank stress test results on June 24. The prevailing narrative is US-Iran conflict ESCALATING (with military action imminent) and tech selloff STABLE.