WS #9447

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply with confirmed US airstrikes on southern Iran (Qeshm Island, Jask, Sirik, Minab, Bandar Abbas) and Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Multiple sources (Bluesky OSINT, Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha, Guardian) corroborate the exchange, marking a significant escalation beyond the April ceasefire. Oil prices remain elevated but Brent crude dipped 0.2% to $91.28, suggesting markets are pricing in some risk but not full disruption. However, Polymarket bets on WTI hitting $110-$120 by end of June indicate growing tail risk. The US strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest in over 40 years (Bloomberg), limiting the government's ability to counter supply shocks. China's factory gate prices (PPI) rose 3.9% in May, the fastest in four years, driven by energy costs from the Iran war. Asian equities fell sharply: Nikkei -2%, Kospi -6%. Separately, CoreWeave insiders sold $2.3B in stock since IPO, with Jim Chanos flagging the sell-off as abnormal, adding to AI/tech sector headwinds. SpaceX IPO demand is approaching 4x oversubscribed (Reuters), a bullish signal for the IPO and AI infrastructure theme. Meta is partnering with Reliance to build its first AI data center in India, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout narrative. The narrative arc for the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, while the tech sector faces mixed signals: AI infrastructure demand remains strong but insider selling and macro headwinds persist.