WS #9516

The US-Iran conflict has escalated dramatically in the last 30 minutes, with Iran announcing the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, including oil tankers. Multiple sources (Reuters, IRNA, Press TV, Mehr) confirm explosions in Bandar Abbas near the airport and airbase, clashes at sea between Iranian and US forces, and Iran's IRGC firing missiles at an intruding F-16. Oil prices have surged 4% to above $92/bbl, and Nikkei futures are trading sharply lower at 62,980 vs cash close of 64,179. The Strait of Hormuz closure threatens ~20% of global oil supply, creating a severe supply shock. Second-order effects: energy bullish (XOM, CVX, XLE), airlines bearish (DAL, UAL, AAL), refiners bullish (MPC, PSX, VLO), broad market bearish (SPY, QQQ). Additionally, Ukraine struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia, adding to oil supply concerns. Oracle and OpenAI announced a partnership to make OpenAI models accessible on Oracle Cloud, a positive for ORCL. Alcoa plunged on a $60M alumina segment hit. The dominant narrative is the US-Iran escalation, which is ESCALATING.