WS #9533

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply with a second day of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory fire at Gulf states and Jordan, as confirmed by AP and multiple sources. IRGC Navy warns ships against departing Gulf anchorages, threatening to treat transit toward the Strait of Hormuz as enemy cooperation. Reports of major explosions near Tehran targeting an IRGC command facility. This deepens the Strait of Hormuz closure crisis, which is already driving oil prices higher. The ECB is set to raise rates for the first time since 2023 due to Iran war-driven inflation, adding a hawkish macro layer. On the energy front, Trans Mountain pipeline hits full capacity for the first time as Asian demand shifts to Canadian oil, partially offsetting the Hormuz disruption. Russia's Afipsky oil refinery was struck by drones, causing a major fire, and gasoline queues appear in Krasnodar. Trump threatens not to renew CUSMA with Canada/Mexico, adding trade uncertainty. SpaceX IPO remains oversubscribed with Jim Chanos slamming the valuation, while Gary Black predicts TSLA selling ahead of the IPO. Oracle's strong results and guidance carry forward as a positive tech signal. The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict ESCALATING, with the Strait of Hormuz closure deepening the energy crisis. The ECB rate hike signal adds a hawkish macro layer. Trans Mountain pipeline hitting capacity is a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, partially offsetting bearish energy/index sentiment.