WS #9535

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant macro theme, but new data points suggest a potential de-escalation in the energy crisis. Bloomberg reports that Kuwait is shipping cooking gas out of the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf producers 'go dark,' indicating some flow is being maintained despite the blockade. Kpler data shows ~96 million barrels of non-Iranian crude have been exported through the Strait since May, totaling over 100 million barrels including cargoes still loading. This suggests the blockade is not fully effective, countering the bearish energy thesis. Separately, Trump threatened more Iran strikes but oil is down 25% from crisis peak, per EuropeSays. The Indian shipping minister confirmed three Indian sailors killed in a US strike on a tanker off Oman, adding humanitarian pressure. On the corporate front, Oracle shares fell 10.3% in after-hours after spending plans blew past estimates, a negative signal for tech. Tesla won FSD approval in Belgium and Denmark, a positive for TSLA. SpaceX is reportedly asking investors for a revenue multiple higher than Nvidia and Apple ahead of its IPO, signaling extreme valuation expectations. The ECB rate hike and Oracle's spending miss add bearish macro and tech signals, but the Strait of Hormuz flow data and oil price decline from peak partially offset the energy crisis narrative. The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict STABLE with potential DE-ESCALATION in energy markets, while tech faces headwinds from Oracle.