WS #9545

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with President Trump announcing on Truth Social that the US will strike Iran 'VERY HARD TONIGHT' and plans to seize Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure to assume total control of Iran's oil and gas markets. This marks a significant escalation from previous rhetoric, with Trump explicitly stating the US will take Kharg Island 'in the not too distant future.' Multiple sources (CNBC, BBC, Axios, Al Jazeera, Reuters, Bloomberg, and numerous social media accounts) corroborate this development, making it the highest-signal event in the window. The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, with reports of a third commercial ship disabled in the Gulf of Oman this week and 135 vessels redirected. Three Indian sailors were killed when US forces fired on a tanker enforcing the blockade. The conflict is clearly ESCALATING. In economic data, May PPI came in at +1.1% MoM (vs 0.7% expected), pushing the annual rate to 6.5%—the highest since November 2022—driven largely by a 10.7% surge in energy costs. Initial jobless claims rose to 229K (vs 220K expected), with continuing claims at 1.795M, reinforcing a labor-softening narrative. The ECB resumed tightening with a 25bps hike, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, citing energy-linked inflation. Meanwhile, the SpaceX IPO continues to draw massive retail interest, with Bloomberg reporting over $70 billion in retail orders and retail investors expected to be allocated at least 20% of available shares. Oppenheimer initiated coverage on SpaceX with an Outperform rating. Oracle fell 7-9% on concerns over its $40 billion AI capex plan despite a $638B backlog, though Jim Cramer defended the spending. Nvidia partnered with Abridge to develop an AI model for healthcare. Intel shares rose after a BofA upgrade from Underperform to Buy with a $135 target. Bitcoin ETF outflows persist, with $5.75B since mid-May, but Sygnum's CIO argues the data does not support the IPO-rotation thesis, pointing to derivatives markets instead.