WS #9580

The dominant narrative in this window is a rapid escalation and then de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple cross-corroborated signals. Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran after receiving a deal proposal via Pakistani and Qatari mediators, and Iran's Fars News Agency indicated high likelihood of approval of the proposed text. However, Iran also declared the ceasefire void after US strikes killed three Indian seafarers, and India issued a strong protest and fuel rationing orders. The net effect is a fragile de-escalation with significant counter-signals. Separately, SpaceX IPO details solidified: 555.6M shares at $135, raising $75B, with retail orders exceeding $100B and only ~20% allocated to retail. NY Fed announced ~$16.5B in reinvestment purchases and ~$10B in reserve management purchases. Argentina inflation data showed +2.1% month-on-month and +33.2% year-on-year. Russia's oil output fell to a one-year low due to Ukrainian strikes. The US-Iran de-escalation narrative is STABLE but with underlying fragility; the SpaceX IPO narrative is ESCALATING.