WS #9587
The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran situation, which has shifted from a potential military strike to a diplomatic track. President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran after negotiations in Tehran, and a deal is described as 'close' with the Supreme Leader's approval. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated it will not compromise on 'red lines' and that the US kept changing positions. The Israeli PM's office confirmed Trump spoke with Netanyahu about the emerging MOU, which includes removal of enriched material and dismantling enrichment infrastructure. This de-escalation counters the prior bearish oil/geopolitical risk thesis. Separately, SpaceX raised $75B in its IPO, pricing at $135/share, the largest in history. Adobe reported a double beat but CFO departure sent shares down ~6.75% AH. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING in terms of deal proximity but DE-ESCALATING in terms of military risk.
Key developments
- Trump cancels Iran strikes, signals peace deal 'soon'; Iran insists on red lines
- SpaceX raises $75B in largest US IPO at ~$1.78T valuation
- Adobe beats Q2 estimates but CFO departs, shares fall ~6.75% AH