WS #9604

The dominant signal in this window is a major de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting that President Trump cancelled planned strikes and claims Iran's Supreme Leader has agreed to a deal, with a signing ceremony likely in Europe. This has triggered a broad risk-on rally: the S&P 500 surged 1.75% (14th big up day of the year), Dow jumped 900+ points, South Korean stocks soared 8%, and Asian stocks surged on peace hopes. Oil prices fell on the news. However, a counter-signal emerged late in the window: Iran launched attack drones at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and a US official confirmed the attack. This creates a mixed picture—the diplomatic breakthrough narrative is being challenged by fresh hostilities. The prevailing narrative is shifting from 'escalation' to 'potential de-escalation with ongoing risk.' Other notable items include Cathie Wood selling $23M of Robinhood stock, a bearish NVDA technical analysis post, and an Arizona utility proposing a 45% rate hike on AI data centres.