WS #9608

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran situation, which is DE-ESCALATING with Trump claiming a deal is near, though Iran has not confirmed. This has triggered risk-on moves: oil prices sliding, European and UK stocks poised to jump. However, counter-signals persist: Ukrainian drones struck Russia's TANECO refinery in Tatarstan and a synthetic rubber plant in Tolyatti, hitting Russian oil infrastructure and adding supply-side risk. The UK economy shrank 0.1% in April as the Iran war weighed on growth, with services contracting. The ECB's Nagel signaled readiness to hike again next month if needed. SpaceX IPO is the major event today, with shadow markets implying a 35%+ debut surge and a $2.4 trillion valuation. NVIDIA told Chinese clients they can begin ordering VERA CPU as soon as August, a positive for NVDA. The Nasdaq-100 rebalance added CoreWeave and Rocket Lab, removed Zscaler and Charter. Germany's inflation dropped to 2.6% in May, supporting ECB easing expectations. The Czech central bank chief sees stronger argument to raise rates in June. Goldman Sachs revised down 2027 oil price forecast to $80/bbl on stronger supply and weaker demand. South Korea sentenced former President Yoon to 30 years for drone plot. The US-Iran deal narrative is STABLE but with Iran not confirming, while Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refineries are ESCALATING.