WS #9620

The dominant narrative this window is the SpaceX IPO, which has generated massive retail demand (UK platforms report 'like nothing we have seen before') and is set to debut today with a $75B IPO and potential closing market cap between $1.4T and $3.8T per Polymarket. However, a significant counter-signal has emerged: Iran's NoorNews, citing an informed source, denies that a memorandum of understanding has been finalized and denies any signing in Geneva on Sunday, contradicting earlier reports of a US-Iran deal. This has been corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters and Bloomberg, and is causing premarket futures to fade. Additionally, Sam Bankman-Fried lost his bid to overturn his fraud conviction, upholding the 25-year sentence. On the macro front, Shell is pausing its $3B share buyback program, and India is ramping up economic defenses as Iran war drives energy costs higher. The UK is facing a political crisis with the defence secretary's resignation over defence spending. The US-Iran peace deal narrative is now DE-ESCALATING as Iran denies finalization, which could weigh on risk assets and boost oil prices. The SpaceX IPO remains a high-significance event but with mixed sentiment due to valuation concerns (Dan Niles compares buying at 120x sales to buying ARKK at its peak).