WS #9622

The dominant narrative this window is the escalating US-Iran geopolitical situation, with multiple cross-corroborated signals indicating heightened tensions and a potential deal breakdown. Trump made several aggressive statements via Reuters, calling Iran 'dishonorable' and denying good-faith dealings, while Iran's NoorNews denied finalization of any memorandum or signing in Geneva. This contradicts earlier hopes of a ceasefire extension and has driven a 'peace trade' reversal, with oil prices extending losses initially but now facing renewed uncertainty. The SpaceX IPO is the other major event, with anticipation building at Nasdaq for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history, though space-related stocks are pulling back in premarket. Additionally, Sam Bankman-Fried lost his bid to overturn his fraud conviction, a negative for crypto sentiment. BlackRock's private credit funds limiting withdrawals adds to credit market concerns. The UK political crisis continues with Starmer's defence secretary resigning, but this is a carry-forward story with no new market-moving data.