WS #9625

The dominant signal in this window is the SpaceX IPO, which is now live on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. Shares are indicated to open at $174, a 29% premium to the $135 IPO price, with demand reportedly exceeding $350 billion. The IPO is the largest in history and is expected to make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. This event is drawing massive retail and institutional attention, with a 2x leveraged ETF (SPCL) launching and heavy options activity in related names like SMH and MU. Separately, a potential US-Iran peace deal is gaining traction, with senior US officials stating the deal would include dismantling Iran's nuclear program, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and no funding of terrorist groups. Trump has accused Iran of leaking 'fake' deal terms but also said a deal could be signed within days. This is a significant counter-signal to the prevailing crisis narrative and could drive a sharp reversal in oil prices and related sectors. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for June came in at 48.9, beating the 46.0 consensus, while 1-year inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.8% and 5-year expectations dropped to 3.4% from 3.9%. This is a positive surprise for risk assets, suggesting consumer resilience and easing inflation fears. However, ECB's Kazimir reiterated that rates must be lifted more to tackle inflation, a hawkish signal for European markets. Adobe (ADBE) shares are falling after Q2 results, with the stock down over 70% from its peak and its CFO departing for Marvell (MRVL). This is a negative signal for ADBE but a positive for MRVL. Facebook (META) appears to be experiencing a major outage, which could weigh on the stock intraday. Overall, the narrative is shifting from pure crisis to a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, alongside a historic IPO and improving consumer sentiment.