WS #9664

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Iran-Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is now at a critical inflection point. Multiple sources (Mehr News, Reuters, Middle East Spectator, and various Bluesky accounts) corroborate that the IRGC Navy fired warning shots at vessels attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran's permission, with explosions heard near Qeshm Island and Sirik port. Iran's Araghchi stated that Strait of Hormuz management won't revert to pre-war conditions, asserting joint Iran-Oman sovereignty. This is a significant escalation from the previous window's reports of a potential US-Iran deal. The UAE has agreed to unlock $10-20 billion in frozen Iranian funds as a tactical shift to halt Iranian attacks, and a leaked draft agreement suggests Iran would keep Strait control, receive $300 billion in reconstruction, $24 billion cash, sanctions suspension, and US withdrawal from the Middle East. However, Trump threatened further strikes and seizure of Kharg Island, while Iran claims it defeated the US and no MoU has been signed yet. This creates a highly volatile situation for oil markets, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on WTI hitting $100-$130 and Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization. Separately, the SpaceX IPO narrative continues with the stock closing up ~19% at $160.95, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. Ross Gerber stated a SpaceX-Tesla merger is a 'foregone conclusion,' which could be propping up TSLA stock. The DOJ Antitrust Division approved Paramount Skydance's $111B bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, confirmed by NBC, Politico, and multiple sources. Meta CEO Zuckerberg issued an internal memo acknowledging mistakes on AI transformation and planning to limit team size expansion while increasing team-building budgets. Lotus Tech announced temporary suspension of earnings releases for Q1 and Q3 2026 to prioritize acquisition-related compliance work, a negative signal for LOT. A large dark pool trade of $103.25M in SPY was detected.