WS #9717

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal narrative, which has escalated significantly. President Trump stated on Truth Social that a deal will be signed on Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz opening immediately after. This was corroborated by CNBC, NBC, and multiple Polymarket trades. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry pushed back, saying nothing is finalized and a signing will not happen tomorrow, per Tasnim. This creates a high-stakes binary event: if the deal is signed, oil prices could drop sharply, benefiting airlines and consumer stocks, while energy and defense stocks may sell off. If it falls through, oil could spike, reversing those moves. The conflicting signals from Iran suggest the deal is not yet certain, adding volatility. Separately, Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil infrastructure, causing fuel shortages in Russia, which supports oil prices. SpaceX IPO is trending as a positive for tech and space stocks, but no new price data in this window. TSLA technicals show a squeeze between 20-day and 50-day SMAs, but no fundamental catalyst. NVDA faces potential regulatory headwinds from Elizabeth Warren demanding CEO testimony on AI chip exports, which could weigh on the stock. Michael Burry increased his PayPal position, a bullish signal for PYPL. The Anthropic AI model shutdown due to US export controls is a negative for AI sentiment but not directly market-moving for US-listed AI stocks.