WS #9721

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran deal narrative, now corroborated by multiple sources. Trump claims a deal will be signed 'tomorrow' and that the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all, while Iran's IRGC denies any imminent signing. This cross-source tension creates high uncertainty. Separately, the US government has issued an export control directive suspending foreign access to Anthropic's advanced AI models, a significant regulatory action that impacts the AI sector and Anthropic's IPO prospects. The US also confirmed a strike killing the Tren de Aragua gang leader in Venezuela, a geopolitical event with limited direct market impact. Oil prices remain under pressure from the potential deal, with Murban crude down 4.85%. The US-Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING with conflicting statements, while the Anthropic export control is a new development. The previous carry-forward items (US-Iran deal) remain relevant but are now updated with new data points.