WS #9827

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, now reported by multiple authoritative sources including Al Jazeera, CNBC, and Bloomberg. The deal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and a signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This has triggered a sharp decline in oil prices (Brent crude down >4%) and a surge in Asian stock markets (Nikkei +5%, Kospi +5.7%). US stock futures are up ~1% (S&P 500) and ~1.6% (Nasdaq). Bitcoin is rallying on the risk-on sentiment. A counter-signal is that US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated Iran will not be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon, emphasizing the threat of military force, which introduces uncertainty. Additionally, Russia launched a massive drone attack on Kyiv, hitting a historic monastery and causing casualties, which could offset some risk-on sentiment. The narrative arc is ESCALATING as more deal details emerge, while the Ukraine-Russia conflict intensifies simultaneously.