WS #9829

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which is now being reported with specific details and cross-source corroboration. Trump announced the deal is 'now complete,' authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US naval blockade. Iran confirmed military operations stop tonight, with a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Geneva. This development is a major de-escalation of the geopolitical risk that has driven oil prices and market volatility for months. Crude oil futures have already dropped over 4% (WTI -4.62%, Brent -3.95%) in early Asian trading, and Dow futures jumped 380 points. Treasuries advanced as investors dialed back expectations for Fed rate hikes. Grain futures also declined on improved access to crop inputs. The deal includes Iran halting nuclear enrichment for 15-20 years, lifting of sanctions, and unfrozen assets flowing to Iran. However, a US diplomat cautioned that no deal is final until formalized, and full Strait reopening will take months due to logistical hurdles. Separately, a massive Russian drone and missile attack hit Kyiv overnight, including a Zircon hypersonic missile, setting a historic cathedral on fire and killing at least five. This escalation in Ukraine contrasts with the Iran de-escalation but is unlikely to move US markets directly. The Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING in terms of confirmation and detail, while the Ukraine conflict remains STABLE with no new strategic shift.