WS #9831

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which is driving a broad risk-on rally in Asian markets. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CNBC, GDELT) corroborate the agreement, including a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This is a high-significance development that reverses the previous war-risk narrative. Asia stocks are surging, with SoftBank up over 12%, and the deal is receiving broad international support from the UN, Japan, and European powers. The narrative arc is ESCALATING from the prior 'no new developments' status to a confirmed peace deal. However, there are counter-signals: the ceasefire is described as 'extended' with no permanent peace deal signed, and IRGC infighting is escalating. Additionally, Ukraine-Russia tensions remain elevated with Poland scrambling jets and a drone attack on Kyiv. The US-Iran deal counters the previous bearish thesis on energy and geopolitical risk, but the Ukraine situation remains a separate risk factor.