WS #9835

The dominant signal remains the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which continues to drive risk-on sentiment. New corroborating details include a Bloomberg report that Hormuz trade will take months to normalize, tempering the initial euphoria. A GDELT article notes a stranded LNG tanker is now heading toward the Strait of Hormuz, providing a real-time test of the reopening. Bitcoin has rallied ~3% to near $66,000 on the deal. However, a Bloomberg headline warns that inflation worries keep markets wary even after the peace deal, suggesting the macro backdrop remains cautious. The G7 summit is also underway, with leaders discussing the deal. The Russia-Ukraine overnight attack (70 missiles, 611 drones) is a minor escalation but does not change the prevailing stable narrative. Overall, the US-Iran deal is the clear signal, de-escalating the dominant geopolitical risk and driving a broad risk-on move, though the normalization timeline is extended. Narrative arc: STABLE (deal details being absorbed, market reaction continuing but with caution on inflation).