WS #9840

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, with multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Polymarket) corroborating an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is driving a broad risk-on move: stock index futures are surging, oil prices are falling (Brent -4.87%, WTI -5.7% per prior context), and Bitcoin has rallied to a two-week high. However, Israel's defense minister has stated Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause in the deal, creating a geopolitical counter-current that could limit the deal's positive impact. Separately, UK PM Starmer announced a sweeping social media ban for under-16s, which could weigh on social media stocks (META, SNAP). Tesla faces a new regulatory headwind: Reuters exclusively reported that Tesla presented misleading 'Full Self-Driving' safety data to European regulators. SpaceX continues to gain in premarket (+6%) after its record IPO, with Ark Invest buying $500M worth of shares and mining tycoon Gina Rinehart buying over $1B in SpaceX stock. ByteDance is reportedly in talks with Chinese AI chipmakers Iluvatar CoreX and Baidu, deepening Nvidia's China woes. The US-Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING, while the Israel-Lebanon situation remains a STABLE but hawkish undercurrent.