WS #9845

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal, which continues to drive a risk-on rotation with oil at 3-month lows, VIX down 5%, and flows rotating from gold and oil into equities (SPY, QQQ). Bitcoin is bouncing. The deal narrative is STABLE but with execution risk as Israel vows indefinite presence in Lebanon and states it is not bound by the Lebanon clause, per Benzinga. Separately, the UK announced a sweeping social media ban for under-16s, confirmed by multiple sources (NPR, Al Jazeera), which could negatively impact META and SNAP. On the corporate front, American Express (AXP) announced the acquisition of TheFork from Tripadvisor (TRIP) for $700 million, a notable M&A signal. AMD stock is gaining 4% premarket on a broader tech rally and geopolitical relief. Roku (ROKU) and Elicio Therapeutics (ELTX) trading halts were noted but no details emerged. The G7 summit in Evian saw protests escalate into violence in Geneva, per Al Jazeera, but this is unlikely to move markets directly. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains active with overnight strikes, but this is not a new escalation. The Fed decision this week is expected to have no dissenters, per JPM's Berro.