WS #9857

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal, which is now being confirmed and detailed by multiple sources. The deal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, and a signing ceremony set for June 19 in Geneva. This has triggered a sharp decline in oil prices (WTI -5.36%, Brent -5.08%) and a broad equity market rally (S&P 500 +1.34%, Nasdaq +2.18%). The IMF has welcomed the deal, and pressure on the Fed to hike rates is easing. However, Hezbollah has rejected linking Israeli withdrawal to domestic issues, and a tanker incident near Yemen was reported, indicating residual geopolitical risk. Separately, Nvidia is reportedly raising $20 billion in its first corporate bond sale in five years, a significant capital markets event. Tesla stock is surging on merger chatter with SpaceX, though analysts downplay near-term probability. Anthropic executives are meeting Trump officials to resolve a dispute over AI model export controls. The prevailing narrative is the US-Iran peace deal, which is ESCALATING in terms of confirmed details and market impact.