WS #9909

The dominant narrative remains the U.S.-Iran deal, which is escalating with new details. Trump confirmed the deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will partially reopen immediately and fully by Friday, and Vice President Vance stated the deal may be released before Friday. However, counter-signals are emerging: Netanyahu refuses to comply and vows to strike Iran and Lebanon, Israel continues bombing southern Lebanon, and there are reports of doubts from Rubio and Vance. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit a 43-year low on the eve of the deal, adding a risk factor. Separately, a Ukrainian drone strike halted Tatneft's refinery in Nizhnekamsk, and another drone strike caused a fire at an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, supporting oil prices. SpaceX's leveraged ETFs launch tomorrow, and Nvidia plans to raise at least $20 billion in debt. The macro picture is a relief rally with the Dow at record highs, tech outperforming, and oil pulling back, but the deal's fragility and Israeli defiance introduce downside risk.