WS #9916

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, which is driving a global risk-on rotation. Multiple sources (CoinDesk, Polymarket, Al Jazeera, BBC, NYT) corroborate the agreement, with oil prices slumping and equities rallying. The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, with a hawkish tilt on oil-driven inflation, but this is a secondary signal. The BOJ rate hike to 1% (31-year high) was widely anticipated and triggered a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' rally in bitcoin. China's spending slowdown deepens, a bearish signal for Chinese equities and commodities. OpenAI's spending surge to $34B ahead of its public listing is a negative for profitability but a positive for AI infrastructure demand. The US-Iran deal is the highest-significance development, with cross-source corroboration and clear market impact: oil bearish, equities bullish, shipping bullish. The RBA hold is stable and already priced in. The China spending slowdown is a new bearish development for Chinese ADRs and commodities. The OpenAI spending report is a new data point for AI sector dynamics.