WS #9926

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal and its de-escalation of oil supply fears, with the G7 summit in France focusing on finalizing the agreement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, new signals have emerged: Ukrainian drone strikes hit the Moscow oil refinery, causing a fire, which could escalate tensions but is countered by the broader de-escalation trend. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, briefly pushing the Nikkei above 70,000, a significant macro event. AI stock rally continues in 'boom phase' per BofA survey, supporting tech. SoftBank launched OpenAI cybersecurity in Japan, a positive for AI/cybersecurity. AMD's acquisition of MEXT addresses AI memory bottlenecks, bullish for AMD. Oil hit a 3-month low, with tanker CEOs cautious on Hormuz, but Jeff Currie says flows may not normalize until year-end, a bearish counter. India temporarily banned Telegram over exam leaks, a minor negative for crypto/tech. Adaptive Biotechnologies dropped 9% on convertible debt plan. Dave & Buster's fell 13% on soft Q1 results. SCHMID Group reported strong order intake driven by AI infrastructure. Emerging stocks near record high on tech gains and lower oil prices. The overall narrative arc is STABLE for the US-Iran deal, with the Ukraine drone strike as a minor escalation that does not change the macro trajectory. The BOJ rate hike is a new development with second-order effects on global yields and carry trades.