WS #9955

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran deal and its impact on oil markets, which is STABLE but with a new escalation risk. A Ukrainian drone strike has knocked the Moscow oil refinery completely out of action, per Reuters, adding a fresh supply-side shock that could support oil prices. This counters the prevailing bearish oil narrative driven by the Hormuz reopening. Separately, SpaceX continues its meteoric rise, overtaking Amazon as the world's fifth-largest company, with options debuting in extreme volatility. The NYT reports SpaceX is now more valuable than Amazon and Meta. On the macro front, Barclays maintains a $100 Brent forecast despite oil below $80, arguing supply normalization will take weeks. Citi sees flows normalizing by mid-to-late July and cuts Brent forecasts. The Pentagon committed a $500M loan to Phoenix Tailings for rare earths, a signal for critical minerals supply chain. Coinbase launched real tokenized stocks, a development for crypto adoption. The Russian frigate incident near the Isle of Wight is a minor geopolitical noise but unlikely to move markets. The US-Iran deal narrative is stable but the Moscow refinery strike introduces a new bullish catalyst for oil.