WS #9974

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal and its impact on oil prices, which is DE-ESCALATING the geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude is down ~5% and Brent ~4.5% in the session, with the average US petrol price falling below $4 for the first time in nearly two months. Multiple sources (Nikkei, FT, CNBC, OilPrice.com) corroborate the oil price crash and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Kpler estimating ship traffic could return to 50% of prewar levels within 30 days. This is a major counter-signal to the war-risk premium that had been priced in. However, the Guardian and other analysts caution that the deal is fragile and root problems remain unsolved, suggesting the oil price relief may be temporary. Separately, Nvidia is raising at least $20B in its first bond sale since 2021, with orders exceeding $85B, signaling strong investor appetite for AI-related debt. Intel announced production of its most-advanced 18A-P chip node, inching closer to a potential Apple deal, which is bullish for INTC and AAPL. SpaceX options debut shattered records, with the stock surging and market cap approaching $2.7 trillion. The Ukraine drone strike on a Moscow oil refinery is confirmed by multiple sources, adding to supply disruption fears but being offset by the peace deal narrative. The MSFT-Copilot/DeepSeek rumor is unconfirmed and low-signal. The Amazon FTC ad suit headline is stale (previously surfaced) and not new. Overall, the dominant theme is oil price crash on peace hopes, which is DE-ESCALATING the geopolitical risk premium, but with caveats about the deal's fragility.